Showing posts with label Brexit end games. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brexit end games. Show all posts

Tuesday, 8 October 2019

On democracy

If we accept Winston Churchill’s best argument against democracy as having a five minute conversation with the average voter – and to be fair we must – what else is there? Given that he is also credited as saying democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those others that have been tried, is there an alternative? Outside of small, homogenous communities, families and, small cooperatives, full-on democracy only works – like the law – by the consent of the governed. And that consent and consensus seems to be wearing thin of late.

Can mass democracy ever really function well if we accept that most of us are incompetent to cast an informed ballot? And by most, I really do mean the overwhelming majority of voters who hold opinions formed by others if they hold any opinions at all. This vast majority understands little and cares even less, generally, about the economy, education, defence, energy and pretty much everything else that we task governments with arranging. Most of us are too indolent to research the best mobile phone deal, or bank account, or diet, even, preferring instead to be led by the more thoughtful among us. It's lazy, plain and simple, but it is all too human.

Which is, of course how we ended up with our system of ‘representative democracy’, of which the EU is an extreme example. In the UK most people vote for a party with little scrutiny, little recognition even, of the individuals they elect to represent them. But at least many of us do know who our local MP is. How many would recognise their MEP if they bumped into them in Brussels? As with anything, a definition can be stretched. So far less than 100% of those eligible to vote narrowly return somebody, unknown to most, standing on a platform few understand, yet they still call that democracy?

Far from rule by majority consent we often end up with individuals who only really represent the views of a more motivated minority. Isn’t this almost the opposite of democracy and hasn’t this become abundantly clear over Brexit? It is little wonder that the fine minds of Parliament were so unprepared to be defied and are now so reluctant to yield. Is it time, then, to officially announce the death of democracy, whose name has been commandeered to simply mean ‘whatever my important friends and I want’?

So, what is left? I'd respect a party which would say directly to the voters. "We are not here to fix YOUR problems. Everything you want from the state must be paid for by somebody. And nobody is compelled to care about your family but yourself”. Of course, we would want to foster an environment where people do look out for each other but not one where an army of others need to graft to keep you in the circumstance to which you feel entitled. Not one where noisy rabbles are allowed to fix the political direction. Not one where tiny minorities get to roar like lions, demanding to be fed.

Ten gets tough...

Which is why the latest ‘leak’ from Number 10 is such a welcome blast of fresh air. Parliament is doing its best to shut down the Johnson government, but it seems that, finally, our leadership is stepping up and doing what people really want. Brexit was never about the economy, or immigration, or any of the causes pressed into service to denounce it. It was about national self-determination. THIS is what we voted for. Democracy is dead – long live democracy!

Thursday, 29 November 2018

The End is Nigh!

There are people who believe in unicorns, ghosts, the afterlife, palm reading, graphology, various gods, faerie folk, genies, Jeremy Corbyn, hobgoblins and accurate economic forecasting. While there has been no proof over millennia that any on this list exists there is plenty of recent evidence that the last is but a figment of fantasy. If we knew what tomorrow would bring the world as we know it would become even more predictably unpredictable. It is a classic paradox: if you knew ‘for certain’ that the shares you buy today would double in value next month, so would everybody else. The ensuing rush would create a bubble and most would lose their shirts on the deal.

Predictions do not forecast the future, they shape it; at least they do if you believe them. The converse is illustrated by those who, having been told by their doctor that if they carry on as they are they will grow fat, become diabetic, go blind and die, ignore that advice and then go on to prove the prognosis. Why do we listen to some forecasts but not others? How do we react to forecasts we know are designed to alter our behaviour in a way we are reluctant to adopt? Do we ever believe the prognostications of those for whom we have little respect? And what do we make of predictions based on the unknowable, complex and entirely speculative machinations of financial and political institutions?

Let me see if I’ve got this right: According to the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England, if we leave the EU without a deal the economy will still grow and we will all be richer, but not as rich as we might have been if we went with May’s deal, which is a tiny bit less more-rich than Chequers, which is not as more-richer-still as staying in the EU, assuming we could do so retaining all rebates and vetoes, which is not an option and so can be excluded from the analysis, even though it wasn’t. The statements are riddled with ifs, coulds and maybes and hedged all around with disclaimers: Warning, the value of your country may go up as well as down...

It is clear to all (who voted to leave, at least) that these words have nothing to do with actual forecasting and all to do with scaring cabinet colleagues into capitulation. Whether the country at large believes any of it is irrelevant as the decision has been taken from their hands and their instruction ignored in favour of a politically motivated and manipulated future. If Hammond fully understands this and is signed up to it (and all indications suggest he is) then he is committing sophistry, if he doesn’t he is a fool.

Tory MPs stand by their principles

Fool me once, goes the saying, but if you keep on predicting Armageddon and it doesn’t happen, ‘Peter’, who will be there when the wolves finally come for you? The push to scare Tory MPs into caving in has begun in earnest and as Andrea Leadsom has surrendered, so will others. The future of Britain as a sovereign nation will be decided by the superstitious acceptance of an unproven philosophy. If you want to prove me wrong, Phil, Mark... just give me Saturday’s Lotto numbers.