Showing posts with label confirmation bias. Show all posts
Showing posts with label confirmation bias. Show all posts

Tuesday, 2 January 2018

Doubtful

One of the most insidious traits human beings possess is an innate sense of certainty. Even when expressing uncertainty, most of us are convinced of the overwhelming honesty of our position. Politicians in particular feel the need to express in absolute terms why their philosophy is better than the other side’s philosophy, why the opposition’s policies are sure to fail... and then they go on to adopt and adapt and rename the other side’s policy as their own.

And having mentioned philosophy, if ever there was certainty in this most uncertain of callings, A C Grayling does his level best to express it to an astonishing degree. He thinks, or at least he tweets as if he thinks, that all who voted for Brexit are country-wrecking, intellectually challenged, mentally deficient thugs. The hysteria with which he presents this viewpoint approaches the point at which any truly sane person would begin to doubt their own mental stability.

Brexiteers are plain nasty, didn’t you know? Take this Guardian article by Matthew D’Ancona, in which his disdain for ‘populism’ shines like a beacon calling all like-minded Remain voters to the temple. In his world, all the spite, all the spitting hatred, all the very worst human ugliness is displayed only by Leavers, who he only just falls short of comparing to Nazis. The ‘lexicon of Brexit’ he seems to suggest, would have made Joseph Goebbels proud.

But this expression of certainty that the other side are the villains of the piece is not just a one way observation. In the Daily Mail Dominic Lawson argues that the Remainers are out of touch deniers of democracy. Oddly, in that very article Lawson observes that Matthew D’Ancona himself said of anti-Brexit group figurehead Lord Malloch-Brown that he is 'the very incarnation of what made people vote Leave in the first place'. Odd how the light occasionally shines through.

Naturally, I enjoyed the Daily Mail piece – which satisfied my own confirmation bias – more than the Guardian one – which raised my hackles a little and comes over as sneering disdain for ‘people like me’. But then this is how humans function; we need certainty in our lives, we like to be agreed with. We want to spend time in our own comfortable bubbles. This Express piece by Owen Paterson similarly feeds me ‘facts’ I like to hear, as opposed to ‘lies’ I don’t want to hear, expressing the certainty of economic triumphs post-Brexit

Dealing with certainty...

It’s all getting a bit too much though and at some time reality surely must bite. As much as I might turn my nose up at his activism, I recall Sting’s lyrics in ‘Russians’: “There is no monopoly on common sense, on either side of the political fence.” And realise that we need to leave room for uncertainty. As I keep saying, nobody knows the future, but what we all should realise is that we are driven by the same instincts. Maybe the other side has a point? Maybe we do all want the same things, after all? There has to be room to express and embrace doubt and to not do so, to paraphrase Sting, would be such an ignorant thing to do, if Remainers love their children too.

Thursday, 15 September 2016

Confirmed!

During the course of the last couple of days I have heard or read reports of some person or other, in respect of a healthy exchange of views, of ‘ripping them apart’ or, of ‘tearing them a new arsehole’. Invariably, when you click on the link and watch the events themselves – Prime Minister’s Questions, for instance – you wonder if you are actually watching the same thing as the poster of the link thought they saw. Did Jeremy Corbyn really ‘wipe the floor’ with Theresa May, or did he (and she, to some extent) simple slug out their time repeating the same old mantras, waiting for the end-of-round bell?

Every day on Twitter thousands of people claim to have won arguments on totally spurious grounds; ‘I win because you called me a bad name’ or, ‘No reply? That means I win!’ or, ‘I see you have your troll army wading in... you lose’ or, and this is always the best by far, by blocking anybody who disagrees, as if putting your fingers in your ears and singing “La-la-la-laaaah!” is the ultimate Socratic clincher. Incidentally, I keep a gallery of screenshots of those who block me as a sort of trophy wall. Today’s picture is made from some of those images... just because it amuses me.

Anyway, the principle of hearing in an argument only those aspects with which you agree is known as confirmation bias. It’s bad in science and it’s bad in society but unfortunately it is a built in ‘feature’ of humanity. It’s where we get political tribalism from and why morons call for Tony Blair to be dubbed a war criminal and for Iain Duncan Smith to be tried for murder. It’s why you keep the circle of acquaintances that you do and why it is sometimes so difficult to countenance the company of those with opposing views.

It’s almost certainly why I find lefties weedy and whiny and utterly incapable of understanding the true nature of humankind. Humans are clever(ish) opportunist monkeys with a central drive of self-preservation and greed. This incisive and accurate analysis is naturally why some lefties think of me as an unreconstructed Nazi who cannot be salvaged and therefore must be disposed of. I expect they would have me gassed if they could.

Every now and then, however, somebody surprises me and I stumble across a concord with another which goes beyond politics and life-view and in whose company entirely opposing dispositions go almost without comment. But such encounters are rare; we all tend to drift along on our own little raft of preconceptions and sooner or later I find the sanctimony of the worshippers at the holy church of the NHS gets too mawkish to bear.


Anyway, I watched yesterday’s PMQs and it followed the same old script. JC managed to get in an email from an admirer and repeatedly bleated on about ‘segregation at eleven years old’ as if the proposal was to separate kids into barbed wire enclosed work camps (like they did when he was at grammar school!) and the PM reiterated the government intention to provide good school places for all. But if you think Jeremy Corbyn ‘wiped the floor’ with Theresa May yesterday, it just proves you are a dangerous, untrustworthy, gullible, communist fool!


PS: If you are a dangerous, untrustworthy, gullible, communist fool you may want to avail yourself of a dictionary and look up ‘irony’, ‘satire’ and ‘block’.