Doomsday

Well, here we are again at that time of the year when we are all invited to predict the future, get it spectacularly wrong and then discover that nobody really cares after all. Like the time when I predicted a 60/40 Remain/Leave vote when the referendum was announced. It seems futurology is a game for the experts which mere mangénues should ne’er feign to follow. Seriously, nobody knows the future, so it would be most unwise to forecast events which have yet to transpire. So, here goes.

I have been bequeathed just one vision for 2018. In my deep and tranquil sleep – the happy slumber of the righteous Brexiteer, so ignorant am I of the mental harm I have done to half my fellow countrymen – the only recurrent dream is the open-mouthed face of the proto-Remainer. Like Munch’s famous painting this face looks out imploringly at me and mouths its silent scream. Silent because, having started out shrill, it has risen in pitch to become almost inaudible to the human ear. Almost.

If Twitter had sound it would be a never-ending screech of angst, of impotent rage, of despair, of loss... and it would mostly be coming from one direction. It can’t be coincidence that the apparently disparate clumps of those who espouse the most minor of rights – all flavours of them -  believe that they will only be free to pursue those entitlements within the bounds of a supranational administration. Such an administration that will ignore the settled wishes of the majority and happily impose on them the duty to tolerate and bend to those they find intolerable, by force of law

So, throughout 2018 and beyond, the imaginary fight of those who sport the #FBPE hashtag will play out. Every business closure, every dip in the value of the pound, every price rise will be blamed on Brexit and the uneducated racists who voted for it. And every high profile figure who vows – without any obvious power to do so – to reverse the decision will be cheered as a conquering hero. The battlefield will echo to their cheers and groans, their apparent triumphs and their disappointments. But the noise will be coming, mostly, from one side.

What the Remain camp appears not to have realised is that nobody is fighting back. Leave won and they have left the field. Like Japanese soldiers on Pacific islands, Remainers are continuing to fight the war long after it is ended. And while they keep up the struggle inside their own heads, Brexiteers are busily getting on, negotiating the peace. The day after Brexit, when we all wake up and discover that nothing has changed, that no damage has been done, Remainers will have only two options.

It's bright, it's Brexit

Those who are mentally strong enough will be able to shrug, sniff the air, realise their fears were unfounded and begin to rebuild the bridges they burned during the Article 50 period. They will be welcomed back into the fold. But the rest will behave like doomsday cultists, seeing the absence of Armageddon as evidence that their prayers have been answered; and they will strengthen their faith as a result. We will need to be charitable to them and treat their EU delusion as the mental illness it is. We will need to be better than them.

Beyond Belief

We should take with a pinch of salt the reversal of the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) claim that the Brexit vote would slow down Britain’s economy. The fact that they now say “in practice this has not happened” proves only one thing; that economic forecasts are as accurate as ten-year weather forecasts. Or as accurate as, say, Remain victory forecasts in the run-up to the referendum. Economic forecasts act more like push-polls, designed to affect behaviour, rather than to predict it; because nobody actually knows the future and people are fickle.

But, if Leavers gloat over this pronouncement they reveal themselves to be no better than the more fervid Remainers who repeatedly and almost gleefully use any gloomy news as evidence of the folly of Brexit. And both sides have used the “we haven’t even left yet!” argument to refute the others’ claims. It’s as if nobody has even heard of confirmation bias; a very real and demonstrable phenomenon which affects/afflicts us all. If you can acknowledge this very human bias and admit to being prey to it, you have a chance of, if not avoiding it, at least recognising when you’ve been guilty of rejoicing in supposed evidence that affirms your conviction.

For example I give you Michael Heseltine. So convinced is he that the EU is a sacred cow, without which we – especially fabulously wealthy landowners – will suffer, that he is prepared to sell his entire Conservative past up the Swanee and suggest we now need Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour. Because Hezzer’s cognitive dissonance is so unbearable he has attempted to achieve consonance by a mental contortion which involves the belief that Corbyn is a remainer – despite decades of opposition to the EU - and that a humiliating UK climb down and the acceptance of a ‘soft Brexit’ is somehow a prize to be sought.

When we believe something despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary we construct barriers, we deflect, we do anything to reinforce that belief. Or, far less often, we admit we were wrong. It is believed to be a survival trait, this willingness to believe the unbelievable; it’s the herd mentality, which drives mobs to act against their individual better judgement. But we expect more from those who would lead us, don’t we? Shouldn’t we?

Unfortunately, it is the case that we like our leaders to be afflicted by the same visions and values that we possess. I used to think that the absence of a god – any god – is so obvious that those who lead major religions must be privy to the secret that there is no such deity, because the church is an organ for control just as much as any government is and its leaders must be wiser than those they lead. But that’s a tough act to maintain and the simpler explanation is that archbishops actually do – despite the daily and overwhelming absence of any evidence whatsoever – believe in ‘His’ existence. But no, instead theologians construct narratives to explain this absence from our lives and strengthen their faith in the process.

This is you... not me. 😏

The reality for most people is that post-Brexit, most people will hardly be affected materially. We routinely adjust to the loss of jobs, bereavements, natural disasters, lucky breaks and great successes. We generally advance through life; gaining wealth, building families, businesses, influence, but we also slide back. Sometimes our fate is in our hands, sometimes it lies with others, but it is always up to us how we deal with it. If we have to have one big belief we can all go along with, why not make it that? 

Free

The old news that universities have been ‘ordered’ to promote and defend free speech, under threat of sanction from a new higher education regulator, the ‘Office for Students’ (OfStud?), has popped up in the post-Christmas newsbag. This office could, apparently, be gifted powers to fine, suspend or deregister universities if they do not meet this new statutory duty. This is the proposal, anyhow. Back in October universities minister, Jo Johnson, said young people and students need to "accept the legitimacy of healthy vigorous debate".

This sounds, at least on the surface, like ‘a good thing’ but I’m not convinced. Up for discussion also is the notion that universities must not become breeding grounds for racism, islamophobia and any other ism-style ‘hate crime’ you can dream up; and therein lies the problem. One person’s free speech is another man’s hate speech; so who decides what is acceptable? But more disturbing than any of this is the paradigm that the solution to regulation is more regulation; and that this is being lapped up by the right as an antidote to the left. The irony is thick enough to slice.

In a society with true free speech your delicate teen would have been toughened up by exposure to different thinking, different opinions, from an early age. He or she would have seen comedians telling jokes about both left and right and all in between. They may have even witnessed debate and discussions where both sides and the audience were willing to listen to a good idea, even from one who held opposing affiliations. But that was never the case anyway; the family and community comprise the bubble we grow up in, so we are already partly cast in that mould, if not yet fully set.

University isn’t the big wide world either, far from it, but it should be an arena for experimentation, for dabbling in ideas and for building a bullshit-shield against the worst excesses of extremism from either side. University should develop critical thinking skills and allow you to discern, as the Americans have it, shit from Shinola. It is as much bullying for the safe-spaces advocates to deny a platform to those they accuse of bullying. And to do it via officialdom is tantamount to official censorship. To then censor the censors is, well, I’m a little confused as to what it is.

What it isn’t, is free speech and expression. When the control of speech is itself controlled, no matter what it calls itself it isn’t freedom. The arbiters of what is allowed will be every bit as power-hungry, as self-righteous and as arrogant as those who illiberally try to push their faux liberal agenda today. We need a revolution against regulation and the Brexit/Trump axis is a part of that, which is why even while apparently legislating for free speech, those who practice it are still proscribed. One thing is for sure; as far as is possible, this revolution will NOT be televised.

He's coming!

Once upon a time the principal figure of the mid-winter festival of ‘Oh-my-God-it’s-so-bloody-dark!’ was the pagan Green Man. A man of the woods, a man close to nature, a man in touch with the needs of his worshippers, which was mostly surviving the winter and not perishing through cold or hunger. Tinsel? That’s for the Druids! We want soggy wet leaf mould and mud; plenty of mud.

But we’ve come a long way since then so you would think we might have outgrown the need for mythical figures, making our dreams come true. But no, Christmas seems to get bigger every year. What to do next to make it all the more exciting? This year’s town centre, big, gigantic gimmick is anti-jihadi bollards dressed up as wrapped concrete presents or painted in bright, primary colours – another gift from the religion of peace - magical!

In the past we’ve adopted ever more outlandish versions of Christmas, adapting freely from other cultures; Father Christmas, Santa Claus, Kris Kringle, Krampus. And then there’s the nativity and the story of Edam and Eve and the birth of the baby cheeses... And never forget the animals – the little donkey, the sheep and their shepherds, the cattle and their lowing. And of course, reindeer; Christmas isn’t Christmas without the jingle bells of Rudolph and his Slade.

But Christmas is also the time for political capital with opposition MPs tweeting out festive wishes, while reminding us that the current government has personally murdered millions of starving children, burned thousands out of their homes and totally dismantled the NHS out of sheer spite. Eating their inclusive, non-gendered, vegan turkey substitute and toasting the achievements of BAME and LGBT activists whilst damning the Queen and all her family, the festive cheer must be unbridled.

The Momentum team have been working flat out to weaponise Christmas with the objective of getting their man into power. (Anybody remember when they were saying Jeremy Corbyn would be in Number Ten by now?) No bandwagon has been left unboarded, no bad news unexploited. But still they are not in power. It must be an evil Tory plot. The think tanks have been thinking overtime, working out how Jeremy could be given an even greater profile than he already has. It seems Glastonbury wasn’t enough.

How, they are wondering, can the true message be spread? Using the capitalist machines against them they are availing themselves of the power of social media to rebrand their man. Populism is no longer the wrecking ball which Farage used to bring about Brexit; no, populism is where it’s at and whatever people wish at his time of year Jeremy must be shown to be the man who can deliver it.

That'll have to do...

Out with the grey – let’s put him in a nice bright red coat. Perhaps a pair of big shiny boots so he can trudge about and bring cheer outside. And we know he doesn’t drink but can’t we get a picture of him with a wee sherry and a plate of mince pies? And maybe get him to smile more. But who in their right mind is going to believe in a jolly old man in red with a snowy beard who gives away free stuff?

Season for Change

Singing: “Tis the season to get re-al – Tra-la-la-la-lah!” Except we never quite do. Every year the church seems to be fighting a losing battle against the increasing secularisation of our annual celebration of unfettered consumerism. Neighbours vie to outdo each other with grotesque displays of wasted energy; worshipping a multitude of holy icons in the form of garishly-lit reindeer, sleighs and fat Santas hauling around their bulging sacks. Familial differences are augmented as perceived uneven present distribution pits child against child and couples who barely speak from one day to the next engage in passive-aggressive bouts of competitive gift-buying.

But, for many millions around the world, Christmas is still about celebrating the Christian myth and reinforcing their chosen belief system. Extraordinarily, religion is an exemplar of that very human need for validation. Why are we here? Fuck knows, ergo God. And the very nature of faith is that when challenged by the utter lack of any evidence whatsoever throughout the millennia of recorded human existence, that faith is strengthened in direct defiance of the scientific method. But, they say, you can’t prove he doesn’t exist. But, we say, we don’t care.

And yet we do. It seems that humans are still too frail to survive without superstition and according to Radio 4’s ‘Beyond Belief’ religion is on the rise. No wonder we are doomed as a race if we have to turn away from reason and rely instead on clinging to the dogma of an omnipotent being. It might be acceptable if we could at least agree that there was just the one, all-powerful deity but no, being human we have to make god as complicated as possible because as well as a unifying force we also need him as justification for going to war. Plus ça change...

And talking of change, the BBC came under fire yesterday for a recruitment advertisement: Seeking a ‘Head of Change’, somebody who can “influence the success of the Terms and Conditions programme with far-reaching impacts” and “leverage opportunities for benefits” while they “engage senior stakeholders to understand change impacts” etc, etc and bollocks and anon... The national press mocked them for the nebulous job description and claimed that nobody understood what the job entailed or what its purpose was.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/894531/BBC-job-advert-head-of-change-parody-news-latest-broadcasting-house-comedy-jargon-w1a

What we used to call coping is now called change management. But the nature of change is that we can never be sure what might have happened had we not managed it. Sure, we can model alternative futures and we can retrospectively imagine alternative routes to the present, but there is no proof. It’s the perfect job – no matter the outcome you can easily present a version of history which shows how we did so much better with you in post than without. And even better, you can justify why your original one-year contract should be extended. After all, we survived until now, but who says that will continue without you? Best be on the safe side and make it a permanent position.

Dear Dad, for Christmas I would like a new job...

Religion could learn much from this approach and should proactively recruit evangelists to spread the word. Forget all that preaching and churchy nonsense – all the churches are being turned into carpet warehouses anyway; the church is changing and this needs to be managed. Wanted Archbishop of Canterbury: The successful candidate will engage blue-sky facilitations to roll out the furtherment of the father in the firmament and leverage credibility opportunities going forward. Utilising the latest faith technology to eulogise the benefits of buying-in, our new change champion will ceaselessly promote the glory of the hereafter. This position is forever and ever. Amen.