The ancients, in the absence of physics and Google, used
superstition to explain their world. Playthings of mischievous and often
vexatious gods, human leaders sought to ally themselves with higher powers and
became easy prey to soothsayers who claimed insight and offered a tantalising
glimpse into the future. Not too precise, mind, nothing so specific it could
ever be held up to detailed scrutiny. The perfect soothsayer would be akin to a
modern-day PR practitioner, forever repeating back to the client what the
client wants to hear yet appearing to remain impartially aloof and prophetic.
Eventually these high priests of doom wormed their way right
to the top of society and became untouchable talismans and harbingers of
continued dynastic supremacy. These days they go to Eton and become Chancellor
of the Exchequer. And they use technology instead of crystal balls. The
government has once again used your money and the machinery of state (which is
supposed to serve you) to dole out another helping of thin, cold, fearful
Brexit gruel. Using models approved by those people who approve of such things,
they have fed in selective data and come up with projections in the time
honoured fashion of any proud pseudo-scientist.
Now, real scientists and engineers have used computer
models for years; models based on hard, known repeatable facts, such as the
properties of materials or chemical reactions or natural phenomena, such as
gravity. Feed in the right numbers and you get accurate, reliable output;
information which can predict with some certainty the amount of concrete needed
to build that bridge and how many trucks it will hold. They can tell you when
the sun will rise and set and predict eclipses hundreds of years in the future.
Most importantly, computer models allow you to vary the inputs and see the
consequences without spending a fortune getting it wrong.
But such powerful tools have to be carefully handled and
a hard-learned lesson of early days is summed up by the acronym GIGO - garbage
in, garbage out. The government guessing machine is now spewing out so much
garbage it is beginning to attract rats and disease. Well, two can play at that
game, to which end I have coded a special spreadsheet whose algorithms are
arranged such that the desired outcomes are entered and the necessary inputs
are reverse engineered to suit.
Thus, if I want to show global warming, it carefully
selects from known information the required data sets to produce that conclusion,
omitting any inconvenient truths such as this utterly normal May weather we’re
having. Should I wish to forecast a reduction in migrant figures it points me
at the most suitable year-on-year figures to compare. And if I want to demonstrate
the absolute truth about what an existential disaster Brexit will bring, why I
just tell the application to recreate 1978-1979, the famous year of discontent.
Government 'scientists' discover new 'facts'.
But David Cameron’s chickens may be coming home to roost
as a new generation of John Major’s bastards renounce his ill-considered logic
and defy his stance on the EU. For a fee I’m sure I could get my app to forecast his political
survival. It might even be possible to select from the pile of evidence actions
that exclude the current finagling and misuse of the instruments of state. I could
turn his forecast DIY recession into a DIY vote of confidence. But I fear there
is only so much bullshit any system can take.
I have come to the conclusion that most of us are mushrooms because we thrive best when we are kept in the dark and fed bullshit from time to time. A few of us are like flowers and are at our best in the light and everything is in the open. Then there are some who are like weeds who greedily eat up anything around them and choke off competition. Which one are you? Not you Batsby you like me are a flower.
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